Vainolo's Blog

Economists vs Astrologists

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I am an avid reader of John Mauldin (one of his 1.5 million closest friends, as he puts it).His weekly mail is a must-subscribe for any investor.
I’m a bit behind on my reading material, so just a couple of days ago I finished reading his “Out of the Box” article, which was written by James Montier (never heard of him, but I’m definitely going to add his blog to my reader and probably buy The Little Book of Behavioral Investing). The following sentence caught my eyes and I think it is so true that I must pass it on, if at least one of my readers (do I have more than one?) stops listening to economists and starts thinking by himself, I will be very happy.

attempting to invest on the back of economic forecasts is an exercise in extreme folly, even in normal times. Economists are probably the one group who make astrologers look like professionals when it comes to telling the future… economists are simply useless when it comes to forecasting. They have missed every recession in the last four decades! And it isn’t just growth that economists can’t forecast: it’s also inflation, bond yields, and pretty much everything else.”

Having said that, it is now time to say good night.

Written by vainolo

January 17th, 2011 at 6:09 pm

Posted in Invest

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